Vermeidung von Währungskriegen und Sicherung einer globalen Konjunkturerholung

Selected for the Global Economic Symposium 2011

When recessions are severe and global, such as the one triggered by the financial crisis of 2007, they tend to lead to competitive devaluation of currencies. Such interventions raise unnecessary trade tensions, especially if accompanied by trade protectionist measures. The result is large disruption of global trade and further worsening of the global recession. As experiences of the Great Depression clearly show, the consequences of currency and trade wars would be felt by businesses, consumers and governments around the world. What is needed is a coordinated plan, which involves all trading partners, to tackle a global recession while ensuring balanced recovery.

 

Konzepte

Wesentliches Schlagwort: Wechselkurspolitik

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht

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Literaturliste

China and its dollar exchange rate : a worldwide stabilizing influence? / Ronald McKinnon ; Gunther Schnabl.
We argue that criticism concerning the Chinese dollar peg is misplaced as no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. The stable nominal yuan/dollar rate is argued to have stabilized Chinese, East Asian and global growth. However, linked to US low interest rates, Chinese sterilization policies and potentially subsidized capital allocation in China the real yuan/dollar rate is undervalued. This has caused – both in China and the United States – structural distortions and threatens to undermine global growth and stability. We propose Sino-American policy coordination to escape from the policy dilemma, which continues to drive global imbalances.

  • China and its dollar exchange rate : a worldwide stabilizing influence? / Ronald McKinnon ; Gunther Schnabl.
    (2011) CESifo working paper series ; 3449 : Monetary policy and international finance; 27 S.

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  • China and its Dollar exchange rate : a worldwide stabilizing influence? / Ronald McKinnon; Gunther Schnabl.
    (2011) CESifo working paper ; 3449 : Monetary Policy and International Finance; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 27 S., 335,77 KB).

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Policymaking from a “macroprudential” perspective in emerging market economies / by Ramon Moreno.

  • Policymaking from a “macroprudential” perspective in emerging market economies / by Ramon Moreno.
    (2011) BIS working papers ; 336; V, 21 S.

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Global imbalances, volatile capital inflows and proposed further IMF roles / Darmin Nasution.

  • Global imbalances, volatile capital inflows and proposed further IMF roles / Darmin Nasution.
    (2011) In: Financial stability review . – Paris. – Bd. 15.2011, (Feb.2011) S. 101-105.

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The threat of “currency wars” : a European perspective / Zsolt Darvas; Jean Pisani-Ferry.
In this paper, original written for the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) of the European Parliament on 30 November as part of the series entitled ‘The threat of “currency wars”: global imbalances and their effects on currencies’, Bruegel Fellows Jean Pisani-Ferry and Zsolt Darvas argue that the “currency war” has three manifestations: 1) the inflexible pegs of undervalued currencies; 2) attempts by floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation; 3) quantitative easing. Europe should primarily be concerned about the first issue, which relates to the renewed debate about the international monetary system.

  • The threat of “currency wars” : a European perspective / Zsolt Darvas; Jean Pisani-Ferry.
    (2011) Discussion papers / Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences ; 2011,2; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 29 S., 632,84 KB).

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  • The threat of “currency wars” : a European perspective / Zsolt Darvas and Jean Pisani-Ferry.
    (2010) Bruegel policy contribution ; 2010,12; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 17 S., 597,11 KB).

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US-China external imbalance and the global financial crisis / Justin Yifu Lin, Hinh T. Dinh and Fernando Im.

  • US-China external imbalance and the global financial crisis / Justin Yifu Lin, Hinh T. Dinh and Fernando Im.
    (2010) In: China economic journal. – London [u.a.]. – Bd. 3.2010, 1, (Feb.2010) S. 1-24.

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The future of the international exchange rate system / Wolf Schäfer.

  • The future of the international exchange rate system / Wolf Schäfer.
    (2010) , @Hamburg:Stiftung Europa Kolleg Hamburg. 2010. – ; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 8 S., 140,81 KB).

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Does the IMF Help or Hurt? : the effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises / Axel Dreher and Stefanie Walter.

  • Does the IMF Help or Hurt? : the effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises / Axel Dreher and Stefanie Walter.
    (2010) In: World development. – Bd. 38.2010, 1, (Jan.2010) S. 1-18.

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  • Does the IMF help or hurt? : the effect of IMF programs on the likelihood and outcome of currency crises / Axel Dreher and Stefanie Walter.
    (2008) KOF working papers / Konjunkturforschungsstelle, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich ; 186; Online-Ressource (37 S.).

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Exchange rate policy and macroeconomic adjustment / Geng Xiao.

How China’s holdings of foreign reserves affect the value of the US dollar in Europe and Asia / Jonathan E. Leightner.

  • How China’s holdings of foreign reserves affect the value of the US dollar in Europe and Asia / Jonathan E. Leightner.
    (2010) In: China & world economy. – Oxford. – Bd. 18.2010, 3, (5/6.2010) S. 24-39.

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Global imbalances, the financial crisis and the international monetary system / Ignazio Visco.

  • Global imbalances, the financial crisis and the international monetary system / Ignazio Visco.
    (2010) In: World economics. – Henley-on-Thames. – Bd. 11.2010, 1, (1/3.2010) S. 69-82.

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Currency wars? / Daniel Gros.

China, the United States and the IMF : negotiating exchange rate adjustment / Jonathan E. Sanford.

  • China, the United States and the IMF : negotiating exchange rate adjustment / Jonathan E. Sanford.
    (2008) In: Current politics and economics of Asia. – Bd. 16.2008, 3/4, S. 321-361.

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  • China, the United States and the IMF : negotiating exchange rate adjustment / Jonathan E. Sanford.
    (2007) In: China in focus. – 2007, S. 139-177.

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  • China, the United States and the IMF : negotiating exchange rate adjustment / Jonathan E. Sanford.
    (2007) In: Economics and foreign investment in China. – 2007, S. 109-150.

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Crisis and global imbalances : the fragility of the current international monetary system / Andrea Ricci.

  • Crisis and global imbalances : the fragility of the current international monetary system / Andrea Ricci.
    (2010) In: Rivista italiana degli economisti. – Bologna. – Bd. 15.2010, 3, (Dez.2010) S. 341-363.

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Financial market turbulence and global imbalances / John Lipsky.

The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment / by Wei Dong.

  • The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment / by Wei Dong.
    (2010) Working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2010,16; Online-Ressource (III, 32 S., 397 Kb).

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Competitive devaluations : toward a welfare-based approach / Giancarlo Corsetti ….

Accounting for the China-US trade imbalance : an ownership-based approach / Yiping Xu, Guijun Lin and Huayu Sun.

  • Accounting for the China-US trade imbalance : an ownership-based approach / Yiping Xu, Guijun Lin and Huayu Sun.
    (2010) In: Review of international economics. – Oxford [u.a.]. – Bd. 18.2010, 3, (Aug.2010) S. 540-551.

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Reshaping the international monetary architecture : lessons from the Keynes Plan / Nadia F. Piffaretti.

  • Reshaping the international monetary architecture : lessons from the Keynes Plan / Nadia F. Piffaretti.
    (2009) In: Banks and bank systems. – Bd. 4.2009, 1, S. 45-54.

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  • Reshaping the international monetary architecture : lessons from Keynes plan / Nadia F. Piffaretti.
    (2009) Policy research working paper ; 5034; Online-Ressource (28 S.).

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G20: global imbalance and financial crisis / Ji Hong Kim.

  • G20: global imbalance and financial crisis / Ji Hong Kim.
    (2009) KDI School working paper series ; 09,07; Online-Ressource (21 S.).

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A theory of international currency : competition and discipline / Yiting Li; Akihiko Matsui.

  • A theory of international currency : competition and discipline / Yiting Li; Akihiko Matsui.
    (2009) In: Journal of the Japanese and international economies. – Amsterdam. – Bd. 23.2009, 4, (Dez.2009) S. 407-426.

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Did the structure of trade and foreign debt affect reserve currency composition? : evidence from interwar Japan / Mariko Hatase and Mari Ohnuki.

  • Did the structure of trade and foreign debt affect reserve currency composition? : evidence from interwar Japan / Mariko Hatase and Mari Ohnuki.
    (2009) In: European review of economic history. – Bd. 13.2009, 3, (Dez.2009) S. 319-347.

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  • Did the structure of trade and foreign debt affect reserve currency composition? : evidence from Interwar Japan / Mariko Hatase and Mari Ohnuki.
    (2009) IMES discussion paper series ; 2009-E-15; 28 S.

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Resolving the global imbalance : the dollar and the US saving rate / Martin S. Feldstein.
“The large trade and current account deficits of the United States cannot continue indefinitely because doing so would constitute a permanent gift to the U.S. economy. The process that will cause this gift to shrink and that will eventually cause it to reverse is a fall in the dollar. The dollar will fall as private investors and governments become unwilling to accept the risk of increasing amounts of dollars in their portfolios, especially in a context in which they realize that the dollar must fall to reduce the trade imbalance. Although a more competitive dollar is the mechanism that will cause the U.S. trade deficit to decline, the fundamental requirement for a lower trade deficit is an increase in the U.S. national saving rate. So a rise will be driven by higher household savings of the coming years as the two primary forces that depressed savings in recent years are reversed: the exceptionally rapid rise in household wealth and the high level of mortgage refinancing with equity withdrawal”–National Bureau of Economic Research web site

  • Resolving the global imbalance : the dollar and the US saving rate / Martin S. Feldstein.
    (2008) NBER working paper series ; 13952; 21 S.

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Structural imbalance and global monetary stability / by Dominick Salvatore.

Exchange rates and trade balance adjustment in emerging market economies / Atish Ghosh , Alun Thomas, Juan Zalduendo, Luis Catão; Bikas Joshi ….

  • Exchange rates and trade balance adjustment in emerging market economies / Atish Ghosh , Alun Thomas, Juan Zalduendo, Luis Catão; Bikas Joshi ….
    (2008) In: Exchange rate analysis in support of IMF surveillance. – Washington, DC. – 2008, S. 41-82.

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Global imbalances, tanking dollar, and the IMF’s surveillance over exchange rate policies / Sitikantha Pattanaik.

  • Global imbalances, tanking dollar, and the IMF’s surveillance over exchange rate policies / Sitikantha Pattanaik.
    (2007) In: The Cato journal. – Washington, DC. – Bd. 27.2007, 3, S. 299-324.

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Currency manipulation : the IMF and WTO / Jonathan E. Sanford.

  • Currency manipulation : the IMF and WTO / Jonathan E. Sanford.
    (2007) In: Currency interventions, fluctuations and economic issues. – New York, NY. – 2007, S. 129-135.

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Global imbalance, China and the international currency system / Fan Gang.

  • Global imbalance, China and the international currency system / Fan Gang.
    (2006) In: The turning point in China’s economic development. – Canberra, ACT. – 2006, S. 87-102.

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