Ölpreis – Ursachen und Folgen
von Thomas Groß, 03.2011
Seit Anfang Dezember 2010 hat sich der Preis für Brentöl um gut 22% erhöht. Dieser Anstieg ist zum Teil auf das kräftige Wachstum der Weltkonjunktur und die damit verbundene höhere Ölnachfrage zurückzuführen. Die Entwicklung des Ölpreises in den nächsten Monaten wird stark von den weiteren Ereignissen im Nahen Osten und dem Handeln der Opec abhängen.
Lesen Sie weiter im Kommentar des Wirtschaftsdienst 3/2011
Wesentliches Schlagwort: Mineralölpreisschock
Regionale Aspekte: USA – Mineralölpreisschock
Regionale Aspekte: Welt – Mineralölpreisschock
Literaturliste
The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? / Olivier J. Blanchard and Jordi Galí.
“We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four different hypotheses for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i.e. lack of concurrent adverse shocks), (b) smaller share of oil in production, (c) more flexible labor markets, and (d) improvements in monetary policy. We conclude that all four have played an important role”–National Bureau of Economic Research web site
- The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? / Olivier J. Blanchard and Jordi Galí.
(2009) In: International dimensions of monetary policy. – 2009, S. 373-421.
- The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? / Olivier J. Blanchard and Jordi Galí.
(2008) [Working papers / Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra ; 1045]; Online-Ressource (75 S.).
- The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? / Olivier J. Blanchard; Jordi Gali.
(2007) NBER working paper series ; 13368; 77 S.
- The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks : why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? / Olivier J. Blanchard; Jordi Gali.
(18 Aug. 2007) Working paper series / Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics ; 07,21; Online-Ressource, 77 S., Text.
Oil and the euro area economy / Gert Peersman and Ine van Robays.
- Oil and the euro area economy / Gert Peersman and Ine van Robays.
(2009) In: Economic policy. – Bd. 60.2009, (Okt.2009) S. 603-651.
- Oil and the Euro area economy / Gert Peersman; Ine Van Robays.
(2009) Working paper / Universiteit Gent, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfskunde ; 582; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 43 S., 379 KB).
Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007-08 / James D. Hamilton.
- Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007-08 / James D. Hamilton.
(2009) In: Brookings papers on economic activity. – Bd. 2009,1, S. 215-283 .
- Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007-08 / James D. Hamilton.
(2009) Cambridge, Mass.; 69 S.
Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks / Gert Peersman ; Ine Van Robays.
We compare the economic consequences of several types of oil shocks across a set of industrialized countries that are structurally very diverse with respect to the role of oil and other forms of energy in their economy. We find considerably different effects across countries, which crucially depend on the underlying source of the oil price shift. For oil demand shocks driven by global economic activity and oil-specific demand shocks, all countries experience respectively a temporary increase and transitory decline of real GDP following the oil price increase. The role of oil and other forms of energy seems not to matter to explain cross-country differences for the consequences of both shocks. This role, however, is very important to explain asymmetries in the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks. Whereas net oil and energy-importing countries all face a permanent fall in economic activity, the impact is insignificant or even positive in net energy-exporting countries. In addition, countries that improved their net energy-position the most over time, became less vulnerable to oil supply and oil-specific demand shocks, relative to other countries. — oil prices ; vector autoregressions ; cross-country differences
- Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks / Gert Peersman ; Ine Van Robays.
(2010) CESifo working paper series ; 3306 : Monetary policy and international finance; 20 S. + Anh.
- Cross-country differences in the effects of oil shocks / Gert Peersman ; Ine Van Robays.
(2010) CESifo working paper ; 3306 : Monetary Policy and International Finance; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 20 S., 714 KB).
- Cross-Country Differences in the Effects of Oil Shocks / Gert Peersman; Ine Van Robays.
(2009) Working paper / Universiteit Gent, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfskunde ; 629; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 30 S., 719 KB).
Price dispersion in the Euro area : the case of a symmetric oil price shock / Kai Carstensen ; Oliver Hülsewig ; Timo Wollmershäuser.
This paper studies the causes of price dispersion in the euro area emerging in response to a shock that hits all member countries symmetrically. We use a panel VAR model which is estimated over the period 1996 – 2007 to generate impulse responses of a range of price and wage variables to an oil price shock. We split our sample of countries into two disjoint groups according to the impact of the oil price shock on the overall price level. While crosscountry heterogeneity in the shortrun passthrough can be attributed to different weights of energy items in the consumption basket, heterogeneity in the mediumrun response of consumer prices is mainly due to a different response of wages and salaries in the industry sector, which can be attributed to different degrees of price and wage rigidities in the member countries.
- Price dispersion in the Euro area : the case of a symmetric oil price shock / Kai Carstensen ; Oliver Hülsewig ; Timo Wollmershäuser.
(2009) CESifo working paper series ; 2718 : Monetary policy and international finance; 32 S.
- Price dispersion in the Euro Area : the case of a symmetric oil price shock / Kai Carstensen ; Oliver Hülsewig ; Timo Wollmershäuser.
(2009) CESifo working paper ; 2718 : Monetary Policy and International Finance; Online-Ressource ( 32 S.).
Who’s afraid of a big bad oil shock? / William D. Nordhaus.
- Who’s afraid of a big bad oil shock? / William D. Nordhaus.
(2007) In: Brookings papers on economic activity. – Washington, DC. – Bd. 2007,2, S. 219-240.
The dynamic behavior of oil price volatility / Juncal Cuñado, Javier Gomez Biscarri and Fernando Perez de Garcia.
- The dynamic behavior of oil price volatility / Juncal Cuñado, Javier Gomez Biscarri and Fernando Perez de Garcia.
(2009) In: OPEC, oil prices and LNG. – New York, NY. – 2009, S. 151-167.
To consume or not : how oil prices affect the comovement of consumption and aggregate wealth / Babatunde Olatunji Odusami.
- To consume or not : how oil prices affect the comovement of consumption and aggregate wealth / Babatunde Olatunji Odusami.
(2010) In: Energy economics. – Amsterdam. – Bd. 32.2010, 4, (Jul.2010) S. 857-867.
Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil / Iikka Korhonen; Svetlana Ledyaeva.
- Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil / Iikka Korhonen; Svetlana Ledyaeva.
(2010) In: Energy economics. – Bd. 32.2010, 4, (Jul.2010) S. 848-856.
- Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil / Iikka Korhonen and Svetlana Ledyaeva.
(08 Oct. 2008) BOFIT Discussion papers ; 16/2008; Online-Ressource, 40 S. = 701,48 KB, Text.
The impact of oil price shocks on the economic growth of selected MENA countries / M. Hakan Berument, Nildag Basak Ceylan and Nukhet Dogan.
- The impact of oil price shocks on the economic growth of selected MENA countries / M. Hakan Berument, Nildag Basak Ceylan and Nukhet Dogan.
(2010) In: The energy journal. – Boston, Mass. [u.a.]. – Bd. 31.2010, 1, S. 149-176.
The asymmetric effects of oil shocks on an oil-exporting economy / Omar Mendoza; David Vera.
- The asymmetric effects of oil shocks on an oil-exporting economy / Omar Mendoza; David Vera.
(2010) In: Cuadernos de economía. – Santiago. – Bd. 47.2010, (Mai.2010) S. 3-13.
Nonlinearities and the macroeconomic effects of oil prices / James D. Hamilton.
- Nonlinearities and the macroeconomic effects of oil prices / James D. Hamilton.
(2010) Cambridge, Mass.; 22 S.
How do oil price shocks affect a small non-oil producing economy? : evidence from Hong Kong / Jimmy Ran; Jan P. Voon; Guangzhong Li.
- How do oil price shocks affect a small non-oil producing economy? : evidence from Hong Kong / Jimmy Ran; Jan P. Voon; Guangzhong Li.
(2010) In: Pacific economic review. – Richmond, Vic.. – Bd. 15.2010, 2, (Mai.2010) S. 263-280.
Oil, automobiles, and the U. S. economy : how much have things really changed? / Valerie A. Ramey; Daniel J. Vine.
- Oil, automobiles, and the U. S. economy : how much have things really changed? / Valerie A. Ramey; Daniel J. Vine.
(2010) Cambridge, Mass.; 53 S.
Oil price shocks in an island economy : an analysis of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship / Makena Coffman.
- Oil price shocks in an island economy : an analysis of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship / Makena Coffman.
(2010) In: The annals of regional science. – Berlin. – Bd. 44.2010, 3, (Jun.2010) S. 599-620.
On the sources of oil price fluctuations / Deren Ünalmi¸s.
- On the sources of oil price fluctuations / Deren Ünalmi¸s.
(2010) [Ankara]; Online-Ressource (33 S.).
- On the sources of oil price fluctuations / Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis and D. Filiz Unsal.
(2009) IMF working paper ; WP/09/285; Online-Ressource (28 p).
- On the sources of oil price fluctuations / Deren Unalmis, Ibrahim Unalmis, and D. Filiz Unsal.
(2009) IMF working paper ; 09/285; 28 S.
Oil exports and the Iranian economy / Hadi Salehi Esfahani ; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran.
This paper develops a long run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the “Dutch disease” and the “resource curse”, which primarily focus on short run implications of a temporary resource discovery. Under certain regularity conditions and assuming a Cobb Douglas production function, it is shown that (log) oil exports enter the long run output equation with a coefficient equal to the share of capital. The long run theory is tested using a new quarterly data set on the Iranian economy over the period 1979Q1-2006Q4. Building an error correction specification in real output, real money balances, inflation, real exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, the paper finds clear evidence for two long run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. Real output in the long run is shaped by oil exports through their impact on capital accumulation, and the foreign output as the main channel of technological transfer. The results also show a significant negative long run association between inflation and real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies. Once the effects of oil exports are taken into account, the estimates support output growth convergence between Iran and the rest of the world. We also find that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran’s financial markets.
- Oil exports and the Iranian economy / Hadi Salehi Esfahani ; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran.
(2009) CESifo working paper series ; 2843 : Fiscal policy, macroeconomics and growth; 43 S.
- Oil exports and the Iranian economy / Hadi Salehi Esfahani; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran.
(2009) Discussion paper series / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit ; 4537; Online-Ressource (43 S.).
- Oil exports and the Iranian economy / Hadi Salehi Esfahani, Kamiar Mohaddes and M. Hashem Pesaran.
(2009) Cambridge working papers in economics ; 0944; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 43 S.).
- Oil exports and the Iranian economy / Hadi Salehi Esfahani ; Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran.
(2009) CESifo working paper ; 2843 : Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth; Online-Ressource ( 43 S.).
Revisiting the inflationary effects of oil prices / Shiu-Sheng Chen.
- Revisiting the inflationary effects of oil prices / Shiu-Sheng Chen.
(2009) In: The energy journal. – Boston, Mass. [u.a.]. – Bd. 30.2009, 4, S. 141-154.
Oil price shocks, monetary policy and stagflation / Lutz Kilian.
- Oil price shocks, monetary policy and stagflation / Lutz Kilian.
(2010) In: Inflation in an era of relative price shocks. – 2010, S. 60-90.
- Oil price shocks, monetary policy and stagflation / Lutz Kilian.
(2009) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 7324 : International macroeconomics; 31 S.
Do crude oil price shocks transmit to primary commodity markets? / Paul Alagidede.
- Do crude oil price shocks transmit to primary commodity markets? / Paul Alagidede.
(2010) In: International journal of economics. – New Delhi. – Bd. 4.2010, 1, (Jun.2010) S. 181-188.
The petroleum market : the ongoing oil price “shock” and the next “counter-shock” / François Lescaroux.
- The petroleum market : the ongoing oil price “shock” and the next “counter-shock” / François Lescaroux.
(2010) In: Economie internationale. – Paris. – Bd. 121.2010, 1, S. 99-130.
Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy / Rafik Jbir; Sonia Zouari-Ghorbel.
- Recent oil price shock and Tunisian economy / Rafik Jbir; Sonia Zouari-Ghorbel.
(2009) In: Energy policy. – Oxford. – Bd. 37.2009, 3, (Mar.2009) S. 1041-1051.
Factors affecting an economy’s tolerance and delay of response to the impact of a positive oil price shock / Bwo-Nung Huang.
- Factors affecting an economy’s tolerance and delay of response to the impact of a positive oil price shock / Bwo-Nung Huang.
(2008) In: The energy journal. – Boston, Mass. [u.a.]. – Bd. 29.2008, 4, S. 1-34.
Why do oil price shocks no longer shock? / Paul Segal.
- Why do oil price shocks no longer shock? / Paul Segal.
(2007) Working papers / Oxford Institute for Energy Studies ; 35; iii, 25 p.
Weathering the storm so far : the impact of the 2003-05 oil shock on low-income countries / prep. by Paolo Dudine ….
- Weathering the storm so far : the impact of the 2003-05 oil shock on low-income countries / prep. by Paolo Dudine ….
(2006) IMF working paper ; 06/171; 31 S.
The macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock on the world economy : a simulation with the NIME model / E. Meyermans ….
- The macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock on the world economy : a simulation with the NIME model / E. Meyermans ….
(Mar. 2005) Working paper / Federal Planning Bureau ; 05,6; Online-Ressource, 44 p. = 735 Kb, text.
Konjunkturschlaglicht : Anstieg der Rohstoffpreise setzt sich fort / Klaus Matthies.
- Konjunkturschlaglicht : Anstieg der Rohstoffpreise setzt sich fort / Klaus Matthies.
(2010) In:  . – Bd. 90.2010, 5, (Mai.2010) S. 347-348.
Konjunkturschlaglicht : Auftrieb bei Rohstoffpreisen / Klaus Matthies.
- Konjunkturschlaglicht : Auftrieb bei Rohstoffpreisen / Klaus Matthies.
(2009) In: . – Bd. 89.2009, 11, (Nov.2009) S. 763-764.
Langfristige Entwicklungen auf dem Markt für Energierohstoffe / Michael Bräuninger; Klaus Matthies.
- Langfristige Entwicklungen auf dem Markt für Energierohstoffe / Michael Bräuninger; Klaus Matthies.
(2005) In: . – Bd. 85.2005, 8, S. 528-533.
Energiepreiserhöhungen – eine Folge von Regulierungsdefiziten?
- Energiepreiserhöhungen – eine Folge von Regulierungsdefiziten?
(2004) In: . – Bd. 84.2004, 11, S. 679-701.
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