Weltweite Außenhandelsströme und internationale Kapitalflüsse ins Gleichgewicht bringen

Selected for the Global Economic Symposium 2010

It has been argued that recent trade and capital flows are unsustainable and thereby threaten future global economic stability. In particular, emerging markets remain heavily dependent on consumer demand in North America and Western Europe. If this consumer demand grows more slowly in the future — due to the unwinding of household debts, the influence of higher risk premia on investment and the effect of rising national debt on government expenditures — does the emerging economies’ strategy of export-led growth have a future?

  • What needs to be done to stimulate domestic demand for the four billion people in the emerging markets?
  • What would be the impact of rebalancing global trade flows across the different emerging markets, such as China, India, Latin American countries and South Africa?
  • Who is more likely to gain or to loose from that rebalancing and what should the policy response according to their different economic structures, degrees of openness and sociopolitical institutions be like?
  • If global trade and capital flows were rebalanced sustainably, what implications would this have for the future of reserve currencies?
  • Can the dollar retain its reserve currency status while enabling global financial capital to flow to the most profitable investment opportunities and global trade to flow where it is needed most?
  • What reserve currency regime is required for sustainable trade and capital flows?

Literaturliste

Capital flows, consumption booms and asset bubbles : a behavioral alternative to the savings glut hypothesis / David Laibson; Johanna Mollerstrom.

A few thoughts on global imbalances / Jacques de Larosière.

  • (2009) In: The macroeconomics of global imbalances. – London [ua.a.]. – 2009, S. 9-17.
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How persistent are international capital flows? / Vahagn Galstyan.
This paper documents the dynamic properties of the current account, trade balance and international capital flows. For this purpose, two approaches are taken: probit and a nonparametric estimation. The probabilistic approach shows that, in general, deficits and net inflows tend to be more persistent than surpluses and net outflows. This result is robust to either specification of pooled and country-specific probits. The results of non-parametric estimation are in line with the results obtained from the probit. — Capital flows ; persistence

Do differences in financial development explain the global pattern of current account imbalances? / Joseph Gruber and Steven Kamin.

Global imbalances and financial fragility / by Ricardo J. Caballero and Arvind Krishnamurthy.

Global imbalances, exchange rates and stabilization policy / Anthony J. Makin.

Global imbalances and the financial crisis : products of common causes / Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff.

  • (2009) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 7606 : International macroeconomics; 69 S.
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China and Asia : economic and financial interactions / ed. by Yin-Wong Cheung and Kar-yiu Wong.

  • (2009) Routledge studies in the modern world economy ; 76; XVIII, 297 S.
    prüfen & bestellen Inhaltsverzeichnis WorldCat - Weltkatalog Google-Books BibliotheksVerbund Bayern
  • External balances in five Asian countries / Jaewoo Lee.
    (2009) In: China and Asia. – 2009, S. 99-112.

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Current account fact and fiction / David Backus; Espen Henriksen; Frederic Lambert; Christopher Telmer.

Global imbalances : strategic prospects for the US and the world / Dimitri B. Papadimitriou.

Capital flows and balance of payments pressures : tailoring policy responses in emerging market economies / Atish Ghosh, Manuela Goretti, Bikas Joshi, Uma Ramakrishnan, Alun Thomas ….

Export diversification and growth in emerging economies / Manuel R. Agosin.

Capital flow bonanzas : an encompassing view of the past and present / Carmen M. Reinhart; Vincent R. Reinhart.

  • (2009) In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008. – 2009, S. 9-62.
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  • NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008 / ed. by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Christopher Pissarides.
    (c 2009) Chicago, Ill. [u.a.]; XV, 314 S.

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  • Capital flow Bonanzas : an encompassing view of the past and present / Vincent Reinhart and Carmen Reinhart.
    (2008) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 6996 : International macroeconomics; 68 S.

    prüfen & bestellen Google-Scolar Google BibliotheksVerbund Bayern Scirus - Elsevier
  • (2008) Cambridge, Mass.; 68 S.
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Foreign capital inflows and the current account imbalance : which causality direction? / Ho-don Yan; Cheng-lang Yang.

Growth and development in emerging market economies : international private capital flows, financial markets and globalization / edited by Harinder S. Kohli.

  • (2008) 2. ed. – Los Angeles, Calif; 369 S.
    prüfen & bestellen WorldCat - Weltkatalog Google-Books BibliotheksVerbund Bayern
  • Growth and development in emerging economies : international private capital flows, financial markets and globalization / ed. by Harinder S. Kohli.
    (2008) Dehli [u.a.]; 369 S.

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Financial flows and international imbalances : the role of catching up by late-industrializing developing countries / by Jan Kregel.
While the traditional approach to the adjustment of international imbalances assumes industrialized countries at a similar level of development and with similar production structures, such imbalances have historically been the result of a process of catching up by late-industrializing developing countries. This may call for an alternative approach that assesses how these imbalances can be managed in order to support developing countries’ efforts to achieve successful industrialization and integration into the global trade and financial system. In this light, the paper presents an alternative explanation of the existence and persistence of the currently high levels of imbalances and suggests reasons why they may persist in the medium term. — Economic Development ; International Investment ; Current Account Adjustment ;International Policy

  • (Febr. 2008) Working papers / The Levy Economics Institute ; 528; Online-Ressource, 33 S., Text.
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Asia in the global economy : finance, trade and investment / Ramishken S. Rajan; Sunil Rongala.

Global rebalancing with gravity : measuring the burden of adjustment / Robert Dekle, Jonathan Eaton, and Samuel Kortum.
“We use a forty-two country model of production and trade to assess the implications of eliminating current account imbalances for relative wages, relative GDP’s, real wages, and real absorption. How much relative GDP’s need to change depends on flexibility of two forms: factor mobility and the adjustment in sourcing of imports, with more flexibility requiring less change. At the extreme, US GDP falls by 30 percent relative to the world’s. Because of the pervasiveness of nontraded goods, however, most domestic prices move in parallel with relative GDP, so that changes in real GDP are small”–National Bureau of Economic Research web site

How China could contribute to a benign global rebalancing? / Pingfan Hong; Rob Vos; Keping Yao.

The accumulation of international reserves by central banks : exploring causes and consequences / Andreas Steiner.

Net capital flows, financial integration, and international reserve holdings : the recent experience of emerging markets and advanced economies / Woon Gyu Choi, Sunil Sharma, and Maria Strömqvist.

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) : a new global currency in the making? / Friedrich Wu; Pan Rongfang and Wang Di.

China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position / by Guonan Ma and Zhou Haiwen.

Dominant currencies, special drawing rights and supernational bank money / Pietro Alessandrini and Michele Fratianni.

Making sense of the dollar : exposing dangerous myths about trade and foreign exchange / Marc Chandler.
“Making Sense of the Dollar explores the many factors–trade deficits, the dollar’s role in the world, globalization, capitalism, and more–that affect the dollar and the U.S. economy and lead to the inescapable conclusion that both are much stronger than many people suppose” – Provided by publisher

The future of the dollar / ed. by Eric Helleiner and Jonathan Kirshner.

  • (2009) Cornell studies in money; XIV, 250 S.
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  • The future of the dollar : whither the key currency? Eric Helleiner and Jonathan Kirshner
    (2009) In: The future of the dollar. – 2009, S. 1-23.

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The dollar, the euro and the role of emerging economies / Bala Batavia; A. G. Malliaris.

Global roles of currencies / by Christian Thimann.

Wesentliches Schlagwort: Kapitalmobilität

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht

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Regionale Aspekte: USA – Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht

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Regionale Aspekte: Welt – Kapitalmobilität

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