Staatsschulden und Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen in der Welt

Selected for the Global Economic Symposium 2010

In dealing with the past financial crisis, have we sown the seeds for a national debt crisis? The massive increase in public debt that has resulted from the crisis is of particular concern. This rise of public debt has made it more difficult to use expansionary fiscal policies to fight the next crisis. Public debt is rising particularly fast in countries with ageing populations, threatening public confidence in the sustainability of their social security systems. It is conceivable that high public debt and a resulting downgrading of public bonds could in itself trigger a new crisis. Unless economic growth re-emerges faster than consensus projections, rising sovereign debts will likely present a serious problem in many countries.

What are the appropriate fiscal exit strategies from the recent global economic crisis?

  • What are the consequences of these crises on the global economic development?
  • Is there a global strategy and what are its national impacts?
  • How should the burden of fiscal consolidation be shared across social groups?
  • How can governments strike the right balance between macroeconomic management and debt sustainability?
  • How can government ensure that their debt burden does not rise faster than national product over the business cycle?
  • Should the governments’ implicit assets and liabilities be counted along with the explicit ones in assessing the national debt burden?

Literaturliste

This time is different chartbook : country histories on debt, default, and financial crises / Carmen M. Reinhart.

  • This time is different chartbook : country histories on debt, default, and financial crises / Carmen M. Reinhart.
    (2010) Cambridge, Mass.; 127 S. 

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From financial crash to debt crisis / Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff.

  • From financial crash to debt crisis / Carmen M. Reinhart; Kenneth S. Rogoff.
    (2010) Cambridge, Mass.; 46 S. 

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Liberalism in crisis? : European economic goverance in the age of turbulance / ed. by Carlo Secchi ….

  • (2009) Cheltenham [u.a.]; XXVII, 214 S.
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  • Beyond the current crisis : how should Europe deal with government deficits and public debt in future? / Fabian Zuleeg and Hans Martens.
    (2009) In: Liberalism in crisis?. – 2009, S. 148-177. 

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Discussion of “policies to rebalance the global economy after the financial crisis” / Raf Wouters.

  • Discussion of “policies to rebalance the global economy after the financial crisis” / Raf Wouters.
    (2010) In: International journal of central banking. – Frankfurt, M.. – Bd. 6.2010, 1, (Mar.2010) S. 253-258. 

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Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions / Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, Andre´Meier and Gernot J. Müller.

  • Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions / Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, Andre´Meier and Gernot J. Müller.
    (2010) Badia Fiesolana, San Domenico (Fl); Online-Ressource (11 S., 144 KB). 

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  • Debt consolidation and fiscal stabilization of deep recessions / Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, André Meier and Gernot Müller.
    (2010) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 7649 : International macroeconomics; 11 S. 

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Fiscal stimulus and the promise of future spending cuts / Volker Wieland.
Recent evaluations of the fiscal stimulus packages recently enacted in the United States and Europe such as Cogan, Cwik, Taylor and Wieland (2009) and Cwik and Wieland (2009) suggest that the GDP effects will be modest due to crowding-out of private consumption and investment. Corsetti, Meier and Mueller (2009a,b) argue that spending shocks are typically followed by consolidations with substantive spending cuts, which enhance the short-run stimulus effect. This note investigates the implications of this argument for the estimated impact of recent stimulus packages and the case for discretionary fiscal policy. — Fiscal Multiplier ; Fiscal Stimulus ; Discretionary Fiscal Policy ; New Keynesian Model ; Crowding-out ; Government Spending ; Macroeconomic Modelling

  • Fiscal stimulus and the promise of future spending cuts / Volker Wieland.
    (2010) In: International journal of central banking. – Bd. 6.2010, 1, (Mar.2010) S. 39-50. 

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  • Fiscal stimulus and the promise of future spending cuts / Volker Wieland.
    (2009) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 7615 : International macroeconomics; 15 S. 

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  • Fiscal stimulus and the promise of future spending cuts : a comment / Volker Wieland.
    (2009) CFS working paper ; 2009,26; Online-Ressource (15 S.). 

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Budgeting for fiscal space / by Allen Schick.

Prospects for fiscal consolidation in Europe / Dawn Holland; Ray Barrell; Tatiana Fic; Ian Hurst; Iana Liadze ….

  • Prospects for fiscal consolidation in Europe / Dawn Holland; Ray Barrell; Tatiana Fic; Ian Hurst; Iana Liadze ….
    (2009) In: National Institute economic review. – London. – Bd. 210.2009, (Okt.2009) S. 25-35. 

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Sustainability of public debt / ed. by Reinhard Neck and Jan-Egbert Sturm.

  • Sustainability of public debt / ed. by Reinhard Neck and Jan-Egbert Sturm.
    (c 2008) CESifo seminar series ; [23]; VI, 271 S. 

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Fiscal consolidation in the euro area : long-run benefits and short-run costs / Günter Coenen; Matthias Mohr; Roland Straub.
In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic effects of alternative fiscal consolidation policies in the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM), a two-country open-economy model of the euro area developed at the European Central Bank (cf. Coenen et al., 2007). We model fiscal consolidation as a permanent reduction in the targeted government debt-to-output ratio and analyse both expenditure and revenue-based policies that are implemented by means of simple fiscal feedback rules. We find that fiscal consolidation has positive long-run effects on key macroeconomic aggregates such as output and consumption, notably when the resulting improvement in the budgetary position is used to lower distortionary taxes. At the same time, fiscal consolidation gives rise to noticeable short-run adjustment costs in contrast to what the literature on expansionary fiscal consolidations suggests. Moreover, depending on the fiscal instrument used, fiscal consolidation may have pronounced distributional effects

  • Fiscal consolidation in the euro area : long-run benefits and short-run costs / Günter Coenen; Matthias Mohr; Roland Straub.
    (2008) In: Economic modelling. – Bd. 25.2008, 5, (Sep.2008) S. 912-932. 

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  • Fiscal consolidation in the euro area : long-run benefits and short-run costs / by Günter Coenen, Matthias Mohr and Roland Straub.
    (2008) Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 902; Online-Ressource, (48 S.). 

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  • Fiscal consolidation in the Euro area : long-run benefits and short-run costs / by Günter Coenen, Matthias Mohr and Roland Straub.
    (2008) Working paper series / European Central Bank ; Eurosystem; 46 S. 

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Banking and debt crisis in Europe : the dangerous liaisons? / Bertrand Candelon;Franz Palm.
The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated. After reviewing the criteria used to measure the debt vulnerability, the balance sheet approach (BSA) is presented in order to illustrate the potential connections between these two types of crises. A graphical analysis yields evidence that at the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before. Nevertheless, the serious threats, which concern Greece and Ireland, do not permit us to exclude the occurrence of a contagious, or self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future. — king crisis ; sovereign debt crisis ; European Union

  • Banking and debt crisis in Europe : the dangerous liaisons? / Bertrand Candelon;Franz Palm.
    (2010) CESifo working paper ; 3001 : Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth; Online-Ressource (25 S.). 

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Debt and currency crises – complements or substitutes? / Bernhard Herz and Hui Tong.

  • Debt and currency crises – complements or substitutes? / Bernhard Herz and Hui Tong.
    (2008) In: Review of international economics. – Oxford [u.a.]. – Bd. 16.2008, 5, (Nov.2008) S. 955-970. 

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Comeback America : turning the country around and restoring fiscal responsibility / David M. Walker.

  • Comeback America : turning the country around and restoring fiscal responsibility / David M. Walker.
    (c 2009) 1. ed. – New York, NY; XXII, 209 S. 

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The political economy of balanced-budget rules / Jérôme Creel; Etienne Farvaque.

  • The political economy of balanced-budget rules / Jérôme Creel; Etienne Farvaque.
    (Apr. 2009) Document de travail OFCE ; 2009,06; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 18 S.). 

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Fiscal Taylor rules in the postwar United States / by Christopher P. Reicher.
Recent research and events have brought fiscal policy back into the spotlight. Fiscal Taylor rules and error correction models have represented two different ways of quantifying the feedbacks from fiscal and economic conditions to fiscal policy decisions. This paper synthesizes these two ideas, estimating a fiscal Taylor rule as a special case of an error correction model. Using quarterly postwar U.S. data, estimates of a fiscal Taylor rule find that the government sector has sought to stabilize its debt through adjustments to purchases and taxes, in that order, with very little stabilization coming through adjustments to transfer payments. Since 1981, the debt-stabilization motive has almost vanished, while the cyclical behavior of fiscal variables has not changed. This provides indirect evidence that fiscal policy may have become non-Ricardianœ in the US during recent decades. — Taxation ; government spending ; transfer payments ; fiscal policy ; deficits ; fiscal Taylor Rule

  • Fiscal Taylor rules in the postwar United States / by Christopher P. Reicher.
    (2009) Kiel working paper ; 1509; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 24 S.). 

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Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area / by Fabrizio Balassone, Jorge Cunha, Geert Langenus, Bernhard Manzke, Jeanne Pavot ….
In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We critically assess the widely used projections of the Working Group on Ageing Populations (AWG) of the EU’s Economic Policy Committee and argue that ageing costs may be higher than projected in the AWG reference scenario. Taking into account adjusted headline estimates for ageing costs, largely based upon the sensitivity analysis carried out by the AWG, we consider alternative indicators to quantify sustainability gaps for euro area countries. With respect to the policy implications, we assess the appropriateness of different budgetary strategies to restore fiscal sustainability taking into account intergenerational equity. Our stylised analysis based upon the lifetime contribution to the government’s primary balance of different generations suggests that an important degree of pre-funding of the ageing costs is necessary to avoid shifting the burden of adjustment in a disproportionate way to future generations. For many euro area countries this implies that the medium-term targets defined in the context of the revised stability and growth pact would ideally need to be revised upwards to significant surpluses. — Population ageing ; fiscal sustainability ; generational accounting ; medium-term objectives for fiscal policy

  • Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area / by Fabrizio Balassone, Jorge Cunha, Geert Langenus, Bernhard Manzke, Jeanne Pavot ….
    (2009) Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 994; Online-Ressource, (44 S., 1137 KB). 

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  • Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area / by Fabrizio Balassone; Jorge Cunha; Geert Langenus; Bernhard Manzke; Jeanne Pavot ….
    (2009) Working paper / Banque Nationale de Belgique ; 155 : Research; 42 S. 

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Self-fulfilling and self-enforcing debt crises / Daniel Cohen and Sébastien Villemot.

  • Self-fulfilling and self-enforcing debt crises / Daniel Cohen and Sébastien Villemot.
    (2008) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 6718 : International macroeconomics; 44 S. 

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Rotten parents and disciplined children : a politico-economic theory of public expenditure and debt / Zheng Song; Kjetil Storesletten; Fabrizio Zilibotti.

  • Rotten parents and disciplined children : a politico-economic theory of public expenditure and debt / Zheng Song; Kjetil Storesletten; Fabrizio Zilibotti.
    (07 Nov. 2007) Memorandum / Department of Economics, University of Oslo ; 2008,5; Online-Ressource, 53 S., Text. 

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  • Rotten parents and disciplined children : a politico-economic theory of public expenditure and debt / Zheng Song; Kjetil Storesletten; Fabrizio Zilibotti.
    (2007) Working paper / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, Univ. of Zurich ; 325; 46, [7] S. 

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Distributional effects of fiscal consolidation / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen; Thomas F. Rutherford.

  • Distributional effects of fiscal consolidation / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen; Thomas F. Rutherford.
    (2002) In: The Scandinavian journal of economics. – Bd. 104.2002, 3, S. 471-493. 

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  • Distributional effects of fiscal consolidation / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Thomas F. Rutherford.
    (1999) Working paper series / Economic Policy Research Unit, Copenhagen Business School ; 1999-24; 17 S. 

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Distributional effects of fiscal consolidation / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Thomas F. Rutherford.

  • Distributional effects of fiscal consolidation / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Thomas F. Rutherford.
    (2001) Rezension zu: Generational accounting around the world, Alan J. Auerbach … (eds.) : Chicago, Univ. of Chicago Press, 1999 / [rezensiert von:] Axel Börsch-Supan In: Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. – Bd. 137.2001, 1, S. 174-178. 

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  • Distributional effects of fiscal consolidation / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Thomas F. Rutherford.
    (2000) Rezension zu: Generational accounting around the world, ed. by. Alan J. Auerbach … : Chicago [u.a.], Univ. of Chicago Press, 1999 / [rezensiert von:] Philip A. Trostel In: The economic journal. – Bd. 110.2000, (nov.2000) S. F741-742. 

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  • Distributional effects of fiscal consolidation / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Thomas F. Rutherford.
    (2000) Rezension zu: Auerbach, A., …, :: Generational accounting around the world : Chicago, Univ. of Chicago Press, 1999 / [rezensiert von:] H. Bohn In: Journal of economics. – Bd. 72.2000, 1, S. 100-104. 

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Finanzmarktkrise

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Finanzpolitik

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Haushaltskonsolidierung

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Öffentliche Schulden

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