Geld- und Bankenpolitik nach der Finanzmarktkrise

Selected for the Global Economic Symposium 2010

During the past decades, a broad consensus among economists and policy-makers has emerged that inflation targeting by central banks leads to very good macroeconomic outcomes. The “Great Recession” has casted doubt on this conventional wisdom. Many policy-makers and analysts blame the loose monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve to be one of the main causes for the meltdown of the financial system and the “Great Recession.” Before the financial crisis, most central banks focused on low and stable consumer price inflation and used short-term interest rates as the main tool to implement their inflation target. Monetary aggregates and the supervision of other prices (e.g., asset prices) usually played a minor role in the actual conduct of monetary policy. Although most central bank tackled the issue of systematic risk and banking, most of them did not treat price stability and banking supervision as comprehensive issues. Quite frequently, central banks had de facto iron walls between the respective departments or they shared the responsibilities for banking supervision with other government bodies.

  • Will central banking be the same after the “Great Recession” as it was before?
  • Should monetary policy react to housing markets and asset price bubbles?
  • Are two or more pillars better than one?
  • Are central banks the best banking supervisors?
  • What are potential tensions between monetary policy and banking supervision?
  • Are quantitative easing and other unconventional policies adequate instruments during (great) recessions?

These and other related issues will be the focus of the session “Reassessing Central Banking.”

Literaturliste

How central should the Central Bank be? / By Alan S. Blinder.

  • How central should the Central Bank be? / By Alan S. Blinder.
    (2009) CEPS working paper ; 198; Online-Ressource (20 S.).

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  • Recent developments in monetary policy / ed. by Alec Chrystal … ; Vol. 2
    An Elgar reference collection; VIII, 446 S.

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  • Macroeconomics : principles and policy / William J. Baumol; Alan S. Blinder.
    (2006) 10. ed., student ed. – Mason, Ohio [u.a.]; XX, 401 S.

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Central banks and financial crises / Willem H. Buiter.
The paper draws lessons from the experience of the past year for the conduct of central banks in the pursuit of macroeconomic and financial stability. Macroeconomic stability is defined as either price stability or as price stability and sustainable output or employment growth. Financial stability refers to (1) the absence of asset price bubbles, (2) the prevention or mitigation of systemically significant funding illiquidity and market illiquidity and (3) the prevention of insolvency of systemically important financial institutions. The performance of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England is evaluated in terms of these criteria. The Fed is judged to have done worst both as regards macroeconomic stability and as regards one of the two time dimensions of financial stability: minimizing the likelihood and severity of future financial crises. As regards ‘putting out fires’ (dealing with the immediate crisis), the Bank of England gets the wooden spoon for its early failure to perform the lender of last resort and market maker of last resort roles.

  • Central banks and financial crises / Willem H. Buiter.
    (2009) In: Maintaining stability in a changing financial system. – 2009, S. 495-633.

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  • Central banks and financial crises / Willem H. Buiter.
    (2008) Discussion paper series / LSE Financial Markets Group ; 619; Online-Ressource (147 S.).

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Financial stability frameworks and the role of central banks : lessons from the crisis / Erlend Walter Nier.

  • Financial stability frameworks and the role of central banks : lessons from the crisis / Erlend Walter Nier.
    (2009) IMF working paper ; 09/70; 64 S.

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Present and future in central banking / Salvatorangelo Loddo.

A tale of two policies : prudential regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks / by Ignazio Angeloni and Ester Faia.
We introduce banks, modeled as in Diamond and Rajan (JoF 2000 or JPE 2001), into a standard DSGE model and use this framework to study the role of banks in the transmission of shocks, the effects of monetary policy when banks are exposed to runs, and the interplay between monetary policy and Basel-like capital ratios. In equilibrium, bank leverage depends positively on the uncertainty of projects and on the bank’s “relationship lender” skills, and negatively on short term interest rates. A monetary restriction reduces leverage, while a productivity or asset price boom increases it. Procyclical capital ratios are destabilising; monetary policy can only partly offset this effect. The best policy combination includes mildly anticyclical capital ratios and a response of monetary policy to asset prices or leverage. — Capital requirements ; leverage ; bank runs ; combination policy ; market liquidity

  • A tale of two policies : prudential regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks / by Ignazio Angeloni and Ester Faia.
    (2009) Kiel working paper ; 1569; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 44 S.).

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Some lessons from the financial market crisis / Otmar Issing.

A primer on unconventional monetary policy / Peter Bofinger and Sebastian Debes.

  • A primer on unconventional monetary policy / Peter Bofinger and Sebastian Debes.
    (2010) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 7755 : International macroeconomics; 24 S.

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Monetary ease: a factor behind financial crises? : Some evidence from OECD countries / Rudiger Ahrend.
This paper addresses the question of whether and how easy monetary policy may lead to excesses in financial and real asset markets and ultimately result in financial dislocation. It presents evidence suggesting that periods when short-term interest rates have been persistently and significantly below what Taylor rules would prescribe are correlated with increases in asset prices, especially as regards housing, though no systematic effects are identified on equity markets. Significant asset price increases, however, can also occur when interest rates are in line with Taylor rules, associated with periods of financial deregulation and/or innovation. The paper argues that accommodating monetary policy over the period 2002-2005, in combination with rapid financial market innovation, would seem in retrospect to have been among the factors behind the run-up in asset prices and financial imbalances — the (partial) unwinding of which helped trigger the 2007/08 financial market turmoil. — Interest rates ; monetary policy ; housing ; sub-prime crisis ; financial markets ; macro-prudential ; regulation ; Taylor rule ; house prices ; asset prices ; financial imbalances ; market turmoil ; financial innovation

  • Monetary ease: a factor behind financial crises? : Some evidence from OECD countries / Rudiger Ahrend.
    (2010) Economics ; 4.2010-12; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 30 S.).

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  • Monetary ease – a factor behind financial crises? : Some evidence from OECD countries / Rudiger Ahrend.
    (18 Dec. 2008) Economics / Discussion papers ; 2008-44; Online-Ressource (20 S.).

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Interpreting the unconventional US monetary policy of 2007-09 / Ricardo Reis.

  • Interpreting the unconventional US monetary policy of 2007-09 / Ricardo Reis.
    (2010) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 7635 : Finacial economics and international macroeconomics; 42, [8] S.

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  • Interpreting the unconventional US monetary policy of 2007-09 / Ricardo Reis.
    (2010) Cambridge, Mass.; 42, [8] S.

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Unconventional choices for unconventional times : credit and quantitative easing in advanced economies / Vladimir Klyuev, Phil de Imus, and Krishna Srinivasan.

  • Unconventional choices for unconventional times : credit and quantitative easing in advanced economies / Vladimir Klyuev, Phil de Imus, and Krishna Srinivasan.
    (2009) IMF staff position note ; 2009/27; Online-Ressource (37 S.).

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The limits of central bank policy : economic crisis and the challenge of effective solutions / Jamie Morgan.

  • The limits of central bank policy : economic crisis and the challenge of effective solutions / Jamie Morgan.
    (2009) In: Cambridge journal of economics. – Oxford. – Bd. 33.2009, 4, (Jul.2009) S. 581-608.

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Should the Federal Reserve have responded to asset prices? / Jangryoul Kim and Sungjin Cho.

  • Should the Federal Reserve have responded to asset prices? / Jangryoul Kim and Sungjin Cho.
    (2010) In: Seoul journal of economics. – Seoul. – Bd. 23.2010, 1, S. 35-55.

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Is monetary policy effective during financial crises? / by Frederic S. Mishkin.

  • Is monetary policy effective during financial crises? / by Frederic S. Mishkin.
    (2009) In: The American economic review. – Bd. 99.2009, 2, (Mai.2009) S. 573-577.

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  • Is monetary policy effective during financial crises? / Frederic S. Mishkin.
    (2009) Cambridge, Mass.; 15 S.

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Pricking bubbles in the wind : could central banks have done more to head off the financial crisis? / Howard Davies.

  • Pricking bubbles in the wind : could central banks have done more to head off the financial crisis? / Howard Davies.
    (2009) In: The Australian economic review. – Richmond, Vic.. – Bd. 42.2009, 4, (Dez.2009) S. 387-396.

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Monetary policy and asset prices revisited / Donald L. Kohn.

The regulatory response to the financial crisis / Charles A. E. Goodhart.
There are, at least, seven aspects relating to financial regulation where the recent, and still current, financial turmoil has thrown up issues for discussion. These include: 1. The scale and scope of deposit insurance; 2. Bank insolvency regimes, also known as ‘prompt corrective action'; 3. Money market operations by Central Banks; 4. Commercial bank liquidity risk management; 5. Procyclicality of capital adequacy requirements (and mark-to-market), Basel II; lack of counter-cyclical instruments; 6. Boundaries of regulation, conduits, SIVs and reputational risk; 7. Crisis management:- (a) domestic, within countries, e.g. UK Tripartite Committee; (b) cross-border; how to bear the burden of cross-border defaults? This paper describes how the current crisis has exposed regulatory failings, drawing largely on recent UK experience, and suggests what remedial action might be undertaken.

  • The regulatory response to the financial crisis / Charles A. E. Goodhart.
    (2010) Paperback ed. – Cheltenham [u.a.]; XII, 151 S.

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  • The regulatory response to the financial crisis / Charles A. E. Goodhart.
    (2009) In: The failure of Northern Rock. – 2009, S. 157-171.

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  • The failure of Northern Rock : a multi-dimensional case study / ed. by Franco Bruni … chapters by: Tim Congdon ….
    (2009) SUERF studies ; 2009,1; 217 S.

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  • The regulatory response to the financial crisis / Charles A. E. Goodhart.
    (2009) Cheltenham [u.a.]; XII, 151 S.

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  • The regulatory response to the financial crisis / by C. A. E. Goodhart.
    (2008) Special paper series / London School of Economics and Political Science, Financial Markets Group ; 177; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 19 S.).

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  • The regulatory response to the financial crisis / C. A. E. Goodhart.
    (2008) In: Journal of financial stability. – Bd. 4.2008, 4, (Dez.2008) S. 351-358.

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  • The regulatory response to the financial crisis : presented at CESifo Conference on “Financial Market Regulation in Europe”, January 2008, support by the WGL Leibniz Association within the Project “How to Construct Europe” / C. A. E. Goodhart.
    (2008) CESifo working paper series ; 2257 : Monetary policy and international finance; 19 S.

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  • The regulatory response to the financial crisis / Charles A. E. Goodhart.
    (Mar. 2008) CESifo working paper ; 2257 : Monetary policy and international finance; Online-Ressource, 19 S. = 142 KB, Text.

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Monetary policy in exceptional times / Michele Lenza, Huw Pill and Lucrezia Reichlin.

  • Monetary policy in exceptional times / Michele Lenza, Huw Pill and Lucrezia Reichlin.
    (2010) Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 7669 : International macroeconomics; 38 S.

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Financial crises and the interest-rate approach to monetary policy / J. Stephen Ferris; Jack A. Galbraith.

  • Financial crises and the interest-rate approach to monetary policy / J. Stephen Ferris; Jack A. Galbraith.
    (2010) Carleton economic papers ; 10,03; 19 S.

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Lessons and policy implications from the global financial crisis / Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Deniz Igan, and Luc Laeven.

  • Lessons and policy implications from the global financial crisis / Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Deniz Igan, and Luc Laeven.
    (2010) IMF working paper ; 10/44; 40 S.

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Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances / Sandra Eickmeier; Boris Hofmann.
This paper uses a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) estimated on U.S. data in order to analyze monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads and asset markets in an integrated setup and to explore the role of monetary policy in the three imbalances that were observed prior to the global financial crisis: high house price inflation, strong private debt growth and low credit risk spreads. The results suggest that (i) monetary policy shocks have a highly significant and persistent effect on house prices, real estate wealth and private sector debt as well as a strong short-lived effect on risk spreads in the money and mortgage markets; (ii) monetary policy shocks have contributed discernibly, but at a late stage to the unsustainable developments in house and credit markets that were observable between 2001 and 2006; (iii) financial shocks have influenced the path of policy rates prior to the crisis, and the feedback effects of financial shocks via lower policy rates. – Monetary policy ; asset prices ; housing ; private sector balance sheets ; financial crisis ; factor model

  • Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances / Sandra Eickmeier; Boris Hofmann.
    (2010) Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; Eurosystem : Ser. 1, Economic studies; 68 S.

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  • Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances / by Sandra Eickmeier and Boris Hofmann.
    (2010) Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 1178; Online-Ressource, (66 S., 1,48 MB).

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  • Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances / Sandra Eickmeier; Boris Hofmann.
    (2010) Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank : Series 1, Economic studies; Online-Ressource (68 S., 642 KB).

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Asset fire sales and credit easing / Andrei Shleifer; Robert W. Vishny.

  • Asset fire sales and credit easing / Andrei Shleifer; Robert W. Vishny.
    (2010) Cambridge, Mass.; 13 S.

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Monetary policy responses to the crisis and exit strategies / by Makoto Minegishi and Boris Cournède.

  • Monetary policy responses to the crisis and exit strategies / by Makoto Minegishi and Boris Cournède.
    (2010) Economics Department woking papers / Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ; 753; 49 S.

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The monetary mechanics of the crisis / Jürgen von Hagen.

  • The monetary mechanics of the crisis / Jürgen von Hagen.
    (2009) Brussels; Online-Ressource (12 S.).

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Are all the sacred cows dead? : implications of the financial crisis for macro- and financial policies / Asli Demirgüç-Kunt; Luis Servén.

  • Are all the sacred cows dead? : implications of the financial crisis for macro- and financial policies / Asli Demirgüç-Kunt; Luis Servén.
    (2010) In: The World Bank research observer. – Bd. 25.2010, 1, (Feb.2010) S. 91-124.

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  • Are all the sacred cows dead? : implications of the financial crisis for macro and financial policies / Asli Demirgüç-Kunt; Luis Servén.
    (Jan. 2009) Policy research working paper ; 4807; Online-Ressource (52 S.).

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Central bank response to the 2007 – 08 financial market turbulence : experiences and lessons drawn / Alexandre Chailloux, Simon Gray, Ulrich Klüh, Seiichi Shimizu, and Peter Stella.

  • Central bank response to the 2007 – 08 financial market turbulence : experiences and lessons drawn / Alexandre Chailloux, Simon Gray, Ulrich Klüh, Seiichi Shimizu, and Peter Stella.
    (2008) IMF working paper ; 08/210; 52 S.

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Crisis and responses : the Federal Reserve and the financial crisis of 2007 – 2008 / Stephen G. Cecchetti.
“Realizing that their traditional instruments were inadequate for responding to the crisis that began on 9 August 2007, Federal Reserve officials improvised. Beginning in mid-December 2007, they implemented a series of changes directed at ensuring that liquidity would be distributed to those institutions that needed it most. Conceptually, this meant America’s central bankers shifted from focusing solely on the size of their balance sheet, which they use to keep the overnight interbank lending rate close to their chosen target, to manipulating the composition of their assets as well. In this paper, I examine the Federal Reserve’s conventional and unconventional responses to the financial crisis of 2007-2008″–National Bureau of Economic Research web site

  • Crisis and responses : the Federal Reserve and the financial crisis of 2007 – 2008 / Stephen G. Cecchetti.
    (2008) NBER working paper series ; 14134; 23 S.

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Liquidity and asset prices : how strong are the linkages? / Christian Dreger; Jürgen Wolters.
The appropriate design of monetary policy in integrated financial markets is one of the most challenging areas for central banks. One hot topic is whether the rise in liquidity in recent years has contributed to the formation of price bubbles in asset markets. If strong linkages exist, the inclusion of asset prices in the monetary policy rule can eventually limit speculative runs and negative effects on the real economy in the future. We explore the impacts of liquidity shocks on real share and house prices and the influence of wealth prices on liquidity. VAR models are specified for the US and the euro area. To control for international spillovers, global VARs are also considered. Differences in the results can provide a measure on the impact of financial market integration. The specifications point to some impact of liquidity shocks on house prices, while asset prices are not affected. — Liquidity shocks ; asset prices ; GVAR analysis ; monetary policy

  • Liquidity and asset prices : how strong are the linkages? / Christian Dreger; Jürgen Wolters.
    (2009) Discussion papers / German Institute for Economic Research ; 860; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 17 S., 192 KB).

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Stages of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis: is there a wandering asset-price bubble? / Lucjan T. Orlowski.
This study identifies five distinctive stages of the current global financial crisis: the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market; spillovers into broader credit market; the liquidity crisis epitomized by the fallout of Northern Rock, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers with counterparty risk effects on other financial institutions; the commodity price bubble, and the ultimate demise of investment banking in the U.S. The study argues that the severity of the crisis is influenced strongly by changeable allocations of global savings coupled with excessive credit creation, which lead to over-pricing of varied types of assets. The study calls such process a “wandering asset-price bubble”. Unstable allocations elevate market, credit and liquidity risks. Monetary policy responses aimed at stabilizing financial markets are proposed. — Subprime mortgage crisis ; credit crisis ; liquidity crisis ; market risk ; credit risk ; default risk ; counterparty risk ; collateralized debt obligations ; level 3 assets ; Basel II

  • Stages of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis: is there a wandering asset-price bubble? / Lucjan T. Orlowski.
    (18 Dec. 2008) Economics / Discussion papers ; 2008-43; Online-Ressource (30, [9] S.).

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Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : revisiting the debate / by Sushil Wadhwani.

  • Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : revisiting the debate / by Sushil Wadhwani.
    (2008) Special paper series / London School of Economics and Political Science, Financial Markets Group ; 180; Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 18 S.).

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  • Should monetary policy respond to asset price bubbles? : revisiting the debate / Sushil Wadhwani.
    (2008) In: National Institute economic review. – Bd. 206.2008, (Okt.2008) S. 25-34.

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Bankenaufsicht

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Bankenkrise

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Bankenpolitik

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Bubbles

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Finanzmarktkrise

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Geldpolitik

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Wesentliches Schlagwort: Zentralbank

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Regionale Aspekte: USA – Finanzmarktkrise

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Regionale Aspekte: USA – Geldpolitik

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